Address to AFR Climate and Energy Summit, Sydney

It’s a pleasure to join you on the lands of the Gadigal people, whose Elders I acknowledge and whose culture I celebrate. 

Thank you for the invitation to join you in what has become an important day in the ongoing national conversation about the biggest economic opportunity and challenge our nation, and the world, is facing.

The Australian Financial Review plays an important role as an organ in the national debate.

Of course, I don’t always agree with every editorial opinion or indeed with the judgement made in every article.

If we always agreed one of us wouldn’t be doing our job.

But I do respect the role the paper and summits like this play in airing perspectives on this, our vital challenge of our times, in the decisive decade of climate action.

In my remarks to you last year I noted that we’d just hit the maximum ever recorded renewables in our grid, at just over 74 per cent.

Of course, we have since surpassed that record with a new maximum penetration record of 77% on 22 September and then another record of 78.6% on 11 October.

This record is tumbling at a record rate.

But frankly there is a more important milestone that I am more interested in.

Last month we saw renewables overtake coal as the largest source of energy in our national energy market.

Now this is a monthly figure, and of course figures do bounce around month to month, quarter to quarter. One month does not a transition conclude.

But nevertheless, the fact that we have now had a month where renewables have provided more of our electricity than any other source is a key turning point in our transition.

Since that record, over the last 5 weeks, renewables have supplied more than 50% of the total electricity in the nation’s main grid, with renewable electricity exceeding fossil fuel generation each week.

This is a reminder that the Government, and most states, and Australian business, and Australian households are just getting on with the job. 

There are other indicators of that too.

The Clean Energy Regulator has already accredited 3.2 GW of new large-scale capacity for 2025 so far. With over 1 GW of applications under assessment they tell me we could see about 4 GW for the year.

Around 1.9 GW of rooftop solar across almost 200,000 installations has also been added this year, with average system sizes now around 10 kW.

These are key indicators in our journey to 82% renewable energy.

Now I want to tackle the 82% question head on, and early.

Because I often read in newspapers, including in the Fin, that 82% by 2030 can’t be achieved.

It can.   

It’s not inevitable, it’s not easy. In fact it’s a stretch, as it was intended to be.

But those who sit around in 2025 and say “it’s all too hard and we should give up” are, with respect, just plain wrong.

In the past 12 months Australia produced over 100 terawatt hours of renewable energy.

That’s enough to power all of the homes in Australia one and a half times.

And it’s an increase of 40% since 2021.

In this financial year we added enough new large-scale and rooftop renewable capacity to power almost 3 million homes.

In fact, last Wednesday afternoon, rooftop solar alone accounted for 51% of electricity in the grid. Utility solar added another 19%: meaning the NEM was 70% solar.

And our Capacity Investment Scheme, auctions continue to be massively over-subscribed, showing us there is a strong pipeline of investment responding well to the Government’s policy settings.

One thousand households, each and every working day, are installing a home battery under our Cheaper Home Batteries policy.

About half of these households are installing solar panels for the first time or adding to their solar arrays.

These 95,000 batteries amount to close to two gigawatt hours of storage capacity in three and half months.

That is more energy than the average daily output of all of the gas-fired power stations in Victoria over the last 30 days.

Massive.

Those critics and journalists who constantly say that 82% is unattainable are in my view, and with respect, making a fundamental error.

They are plotting a linear line on a graph and not recognising that already implemented Government policies are yet to have their full impact.

The Capacity Investment Scheme for example is massively successful. But it is yet to add any meaningful amount of electrons to our grids. It was never going to have done that just yet.

It is setting up new projects that will be delivered by 2030 but are at various stages of planning and approval.

All of this tells me that if we keep our foot on the accelerator 82% is attainable.

We need to keep pushing on planning and approval reforms, to remove unnecessary barriers and speed up the time projects take to connection.

My colleague Minister Watt is leading that effort at the Federal level with the largest reform to the EPBC Act since its inception.

At the state level, most states have agreed to improve their planning and approval processes through Renewable Energy Transformation Agreements. This is hard work, but it is crucial.

We also need to get on with the job of ensuring we have the transmission and distribution networks we need to ensure Australia has a modern, reliable grid.

This is also hard work, with supply chain, workforce, and social licence challenges, which all feed back to project costs.

Which is why Rewiring the Nation is so critical to lowering the costs of crucial transmission projects, and ensuring they get built at lowest cost to consumers.

For example, the estimated benefit to consumers of Rewiring the Nation support for the Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone is in the order of $240 million.

Government underwriting for the early procurement of long lead items for Humelink and VNI-West has reduced costs to consumers by $145 million and avoided project delays. 

And we are making progress on transmission more broadly. Humelink for example has now obtained landholder consent from 98% of the affected land holders and early construction work has commenced.

Now, almost inevitably, head winds and challenges get large headlines, but quiet and steady progress does not make news.

This isn’t a criticism of the Fin, just a statement of fact regarding news values.

Of course, other challenges also exist, and we are making progress in addressing them.

From the challenge of system security that AEMO has been vocal about, to ensuring we get the most out of our of existing distribution networks, to the market structure that needs to be modernised to ensure energy market participants have access to all they need to manage risk and deliver this essential service at lowest cost.

Every one of these, and more, are being worked on at the federal, state and market body level, in close consultation with industry, unions, communities, and other experts.

For those who are sceptical about the work we have done and are doing, just ask your average energy stakeholder if they’re sick of being consulted by my department on the next big reform!

I’m willing to bet a few in this room have made that comment more than once in the last year.

It is a huge job, it is a crucial job for the country, and we are getting on with it day by day.

I am often reminded that plenty of the same commentators who are voluble today wrote with certainty that Australia had no chance of getting to 20% renewable energy by 2020, and that target was achieved a year early.

And that was with a Government that wasn’t even trying to achieve it!

Now as it happens, last month’s record in Australia happened to coincide with the world passing a similar milestone.

In the first half of 2025, renewables supplied more electricity globally than coal.

Which shows that Australia’s efforts are sensibly in line with international efforts and that those who claim Australia shouldn’t act because the rest of the world isn’t acting are either wrong or deliberately dishonest.

It’s taken a while to reach that milestone globally.

2016 was the first year that clean energy investment overtook fossil fuels and it has taken ten years for that to reflect in these generation figures – which makes sense when you consider the scale of the task both domestically and internationally.

It's become a favourite talking point of the Liberal Party to say “why are we bothering with all this when China and India aren’t doing anything”.

I am sure pretty much everyone in this room knows what errant nonsense this is.

India is about half way through its plan to install 500 gigawatts of clean energy and solar panels on 10 million houses. They are making good progress against the complicated backdrop of extending electricity to homes for the first time.

And of course China’s renewable expansion is continuing at break neck speed. China’s recently announced 2035 target includes expanding wind and solar capacity to hit 3.6 terrawatts (yes 3,600 gigawatts) of renewable energy by 2035.  That’s six times the level they had in 2020.

Clean energy investment globally is now $2 trillion, double the rate of fossil fuel investment.

We need to remain competitive in the global race for that capital.

Setting Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target at 62 to 70 per cent on 2005 levels is the clearest signal we could send to the world that we’re serious about seizing on the economic opportunity before us.

We set this target as recommended by the independent Climate Change Authority.

In recommending this target to Government, the CCA made clear: “Australia’s clean energy transition is an economic growth opportunity not a drag”.

There’s been a great deal of commentary around the 2035 target – as I had expected.

Our Opposition said the target was too high before they knew what it was.

Others have said it is too low while not acknowledging the scale of the investment and ambition it entails – or having sensible plans or ideas about how a higher target could be achieved.

The target is ambitious and achievable. And importantly because it is both those things, it is also investable.

It’s backed by science and rigorous analysis of what’s economically viable.

A lower target would be business as usual.

It wouldn’t drive the future innovation or further investment we need.

A higher target, as the Climate Change Authority found, would involve higher delivery risks and require policies with considerably higher near-term impacts.

In my view a higher target, with no credible plan to achieve it, would also risk investment because it wouldn’t be seen internationally as credible.

The target range allows us to maintain flexibility to respond to uncertainty and risk, as well as opportunities such as new technologies and innovation.

Sending a strong signal to investors and our international partners that we’re serious about driving down emissions.

Treasury modelling for our plan shows total investment in Australia grows around 80 per cent between 2025 and 2050.

Or to put the alternative option – we could see half a trillion in lost investment over the period if the Coalition of climate chaos were in charge.

This target has been very well received by investors internationally, including on my recent trip to the United States.

American and other potential investors will be the guests of the Industry Minister and I next month, so we can help showcase the scale of market opportunities in Australia for potential partners in advanced cleantech, energy storage, critical minerals and hydrogen.

It will bring together delegates, our national special investment vehicles, private investors and senior policy makers.

And we have new investments through the Net Zero Plan that put us on a strong footing to be one of the world’s best places to invest in clean energy.

A $5 billion Net Zero Fund within the National Reconstruction Fund, that will support major investments by large industrial facilities in decarbonisation and energy efficiency, manufacturing renewables, and low emissions technologies.

And $2 billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation on top of the $2 billion we added earlier this year.

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation has been one of our most effective enduring policy legacies – crowding in over $3 of private investment for every $1 of public investment.

Our role as a Government is to show leadership by establishing the right policy settings and demonstrating that it can be done and encouraging others to join in.

That’s what we’re doing – and it’s working.

And we know once the policy settings are right, the market, and Australians, are ready to act.

The massive take up of our Cheaper Home Batteries policy confirms this.

We’ve seen the greatest uptake in outer suburban and regional areas, particularly in Queensland and South Australia.

Because unlike what the Coalition claim – it's not a choice between lower bills and lower emissions.

Batteries and solar make sense for the household budget, as well as for the environment.

What’s good for the planet is good for your pocket.

And importantly, more household storage has benefits for all Australians – not just those who’ve installed a battery.

Home batteries play a crucial role in lowering system costs, improving system security, and ensuring we’re making the most out of the massive amount of solar generation we see every day.

By storing solar generated in the middle of the day, for use in evening peaks, batteries deliver broad benefits in numerous ways. To name just a few:

• They lower peak evening electricity prices, which flow on to all consumers
• They lower the need for costly network investment to support surging solar generation in the middle of the day
• They increase the utilisation of networks, lowering the network costs all consumers pay for
• They ‘flatten the load profile’ over an average day, lowering hedging costs for retailers and ultimately costs for consumers
• And they help to mitigate the risk of costly interventions by AEMO to manage minimum operational demand risks in the middle of the day, improving security and lowering costs for all.

The 95,000 households who have so far installed a home battery under our CHB program will see massive benefits from their decision, but so will the electricity system including all other customers more broadly.

This is a snapshot of what Australia’s modern energy grid can be – fairer, smarter and more affordable.

I have previously said energy performance and consumer energy resources will be a key focus for our second term: ensuring we are capturing the benefits of the massive decentralisation of electricity generation for Australian consumers.

We have plenty of work underway as part of our Consumer Energy Resources Roadmap, and it is part of our broader reform process.

As you know, I announced a couple of months ago we would be reforming the Default Market Offer. We have completed consultation on these reforms and I will be announcing next steps in coming weeks.

And of course, after ten years of neglect there is always more to do.

I am very pleased with how the process led by Associate Professor Tim Nelson looking at the future market settings of the National Electricity Market is going.

As well as looking at how we can promote investment in firmed renewable generation and storage capacity after the Capacity Investment Scheme concludes, it’s considering how to encourage greater uptake of energy saving technologies.

But of course, electricity is only part of the energy equation.

As I have said often, gas continues and will continue to play a crucial role in our energy system going forward.

Gas power generation will continue to play a crucial role in firming renewable energy, made more important by progress in getting more renewables into the system.

Unlike coal power and other ‘baseload’ technologies like nuclear power, fast and flexible gas is well suited to support renewables.

Of course, gas will also remain a crucial energy source for some parts of industry, in particular where it is used as a source of high heat and feedstock.

It is notable that these industries – aluminium, steel, ammonia, mineral processing and others – are the very industries which stand to improve their global competitiveness and thrive in a net zero world, if we get the opportunities of a Future Made in Australia right.

But none of this is possible without a secure and affordable supply of Australian gas for Australia.

We are one of the world’s largest gas producers and exporters, and it is simply unacceptable that our own gas users should have to read that Australia faces a shortage of supply in future.

It’s what we’ve been hearing for the better part of a decade.

The Gas Review I’m undertaking with Minister King is squarely aimed at ensuring a secure supply of gas for Australian users – as long as they need it.

This review is ongoing, and is making good progress, and I’m sure many in this room have engaged in it and are still engaging in it.

We look forward to delivering its findings and recommendation to Cabinet and the public before the end of the year.

Alongside electricity and gas, liquid fuels are a critical frontier in Australia’s energy transformation.

They make up around half of Australia’s national energy use – and we have barely scratched the surface of decarbonising this major slice of the system, that’s essential to reaching net zero.

Through our Net Zero Plan, we’ve identified both the urgency and the opportunity to clean up our liquid fuel supply – and last month, we backed that opportunity with a $1.1 billion investment to unlock the economic potential of low carbon liquid fuels.

Australia already produces world-class feedstocks like canola, sugar and tallow. Turning more of those into renewable fuels right here at home means cleaner energy, greater fuel security, and more value for our regions.

As Su McCluskey from the National Farmers Federation put it: "this isn’t just about cleaner fuels – it’s about jobs, diversified farm incomes, and keeping regional Australia at the heart of our net zero future."

The Cleaner Fuels Program is a landmark step to unlock the potential of low carbon liquid fuel supply.

And we’ll keep working with industry on how to boost uptake and make sure Australian fuel users have a fair chance to capture the emissions reduction potential unlocked by lower emissions Australian fuel.

Why we’ve got to keep going

So while the economics for renewables remain utterly convincing, last month we were reminded of the other imperatives to embrace the transition.

Action on climate change is necessary for the wellbeing of every single Australian, no matter where they live, no matter their age, and indeed whether they are alive now or a member of future generations.

The National Climate Risk Assessment makes clear our country has a lot at stake when it comes to acting on climate change.

This report finds the impacts of climate change on Australia will be compounding, cascading and concurrent.

It tells us that climate impacts and hazards will get worse.

Impacts like extreme heat, heatwaves, severe rainfall, flood events, longer droughts, and intense bushfires.

By 2050, the annual cost to our economy of floods, bushfires, storms, cyclones and hailstorms for a moderate emissions scenario is expected to be over $40 billion.

While we can no longer avoid climate impacts, every action we take today towards our climate goal of net zero by 2050 can help avoid the worst impacts on Australians.

I was deeply disappointed but sadly, utterly unsurprised to see the Opposition question the science underpinning the report and, even more concerningly, attack the 200 world-class scientists who contributed to this independently prepared analysis.

This was not a report of Government, it was a report to Government.

The climate delayers and transition blockers are doing what they’re going to do.

Meanwhile, we’ll continue to do our job and drive investment in reliable, clean renewable energy.

Conclusion

Friends, I’ve now held many jobs across Government over my 21 years in Parliament.

I’ve said before, and I’ll say again, this is the most important job I have ever had.

To steer through this confronting transition as we deal with the defining challenge and opportunity of our time.

It’s also, despite the daily helpful feedback from the media and some commentators, the most fulfilling of the portfolios I have held.

Because we are making such good progress, dealing with the challenges and the headwinds and making a difference, not only reducing emissions but building a more reliable energy system and setting us up for economic success in a decarbonising global economy.

I’m pleased with the progress we have made in our first three years, but not yet satisfied. We remain laser like focussed on the task that remains.  

And that’s a task I will continue to be focussed on, with the help of the experts and investors in this room as we continue to make progress.