Future Energy Week Conference speech
Thank you Mark for that introduction.
It’s always a pleasure to be on the lands of the Kaurna people, whose elders I acknowledge and celebrate.
We should be honest and say the cause of reconciliation has received a setback in recent weeks.
But the cause is too important to allow this to be any more than just that –
A temporary setback.
The need for people of goodwill to come together in the cause of reconciliation is more important than ever, and I know you’ll join with me in this commitment.
It’s always a pleasure to share the lectern with my friend Kouts.
Kouts is a passionate and fearless advocate for renewable energy and for South Australia’s vital role in our national transition.
The good news is that his message – that South Australia is leading the way when it comes to championing the energy transition – is one I agree with.
He and the Premier know that getting this transition right is the key to securing SA’s economic security, just as it is key to Australia’s economic prosperity.
And SA is certainly at the centre of our transformation – thanks to the Malinauskas Government and the close collaboration between our governments.
In Whyalla – with the announcement of a new electric arc furnace and plans to become a world-leader in green steel.
In Port Bonython – with the Prime Minister visiting at the end of September to announce the next steps in creating a hydrogen hub, expected to host projects worth up to $13 billion and projected to generate as much as 1.8 million tonnes of hydrogen by 2030, with SA’s own leadership on renewable hydrogen.
So I’m extremely pleased to be here today to be a part of the very necessary discussions on supporting the transformation.
As the Treasurer said last week, we need to be 100% focused on the task at hand and honest about the challenges.
We always said achieving 82 per cent would be a significant uplift - up from around 33 per cent when we came into government.
And we need more effort to get there - we will have more to say in the near future about how, within our current policy suite, we will amplify the path to 82 per cent.
But what I want to focus on today is exactly why achieving this goal is so important.
There are many reasons why the renewable transformation is messy.
People by and large understand the emissions and pricing imperative of renewables – renewables reduce emissions and bills.
Less well understood is the energy security imperative.
A properly constructed renewable grid is a more reliable and secure grid.
It was only in 2016 when SA was at the centre of the climate culture wars.
The then Federal Government jumped to blame renewables for the statewide blackout – rather than the once-in-fifty-year storm, 80,000 lightning strikes which accompanied it and systemic failures in our governance systems.
Failures which the SA government, working with other states and now in partnership with the Albanese Government, have worked hard to address.
But even though our energy institutions are now stronger, I’ll be frank – the upcoming summer is going to be challenging for many parts of Australia.
According to the Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC), roughly a third of NSW is expected to face higher fire risk this spring and in Queensland, more than two-thirds of the state is likely to experience elevated risk of “intense” and “destructive” fires following below-average rainfall over the last two years.
Here in South Australia, AFAC’s 2023 Outlook notes that the fire danger outlook has increased from below average to above average for spring across much of the southern half of the state.
And we are already seeing the impacts of this.
In Queensland, as of one week ago, more homes had already burned in the state this year than during the 2019–2020 Black Summer – 57 so far this year, compared to 49.
In Southern Queensland, October has brought the third highest number of daytime hotspots seen this century – trends detected by heat-sensing satellites that show fire activity.
And these fires are not easing at night - five times more nighttime hotspots than average have been detected compared to previous Octobers.
Not only are we seeing hotter and dryer conditions this summer, but we are seeing it around the clock – leaving our firefighters and emergency services increasingly stretched.
From an energy perspective, we are working – and have been working –to ensure we are as best prepared as we can be for the summer.
Going into this summer, we have 3.4 gigawatts more energy available than we had going into last summer, and in the last financial year AEMO issued connections approvals for 6.8 GW of new generation up from 4.2 gigawatts in the previous financial year.
State and territory ministers, along with departments and market bodies such as AEMO, have been meeting regularly to discuss what further work needs to be done to bolster our grid for the upcoming summer and beyond.
We are doing all we can to buttress the system, build resilience and flexibility while delivering affordable energy for families and businesses alike –
After ten years of neglect, in which four gigawatts of dispatchable power left the grid but only one came on.
But when we are faced with the increasingly difficult conditions we are already seeing due to climate change, as well as the pressures being placed on global supply chains, we will need to continue the work – it’s far from done.
The medium-to-longer term solution to this is in our work to get to 82 per cent renewables in the grid.
That may not seem like an ambitious goal to South Australians, who generated more than 70 per cent of their electricity from renewables in 2022, but for the nation it is an ambitious but achievable task.
I know that South Australians understand – renewables are cheaper. Much cheaper.
Just one example - Australian households are saving up to 57 per cent on their energy bills if they have rooftop solar installed.
In South Australia, households with solar save an average of $930, or 41 per cent if they have solar installed – and that increases to a saving of $2252 if they combine it with a battery. Virtually wiping out their entire electricity bill.
They are also cleaner – critical to the achievement of our emissions reduction targets and avoiding catastrophic climate change.
But the important thing about our policies is that they haven’t just been designed for cost or emissions reduction – as critical as that is – but that they are also vital for energy security.
Over recent years we’ve seen eastern states struggle with ageing and increasingly uncompetitive capacity exit the market, largely our oldest coal plants that are reaching the end of their technical
life.
In 2022, Australia’s coal power fleet suffered thousands of hours of forced outages, leaving the grid short of forecast coal generation capacity for nearly one-quarter of the year.
Expert analysis of coal plant performance finds that the units are collectively unavailable for a much longer period (or volume of energy) than was the case several years ago.
This isn’t a political view, it’s a practical reality.
Now I know there are no coal fired power plants here in SA – but the importance of dealing with this is true across the whole NEM – of which SA is obviously a vital part.
And as AER Chair Clare Savage says, increasing outages at coal plants are having an impact on prices – and I quote:
“We've also seen very unreliable coal plants. We've seen a lot of outages at our coal plants.”
But the AER also points to the path out – investing in the transition, in more renewables, in transmission, to get to net zero emissions at lowest cost.
This year’s ESOO report reinforces the importance of delivering on our plans –noting that most of the reliability risks identified over the next decade can be met through already committed projects, such as the capacity investment scheme.
As Daniel Westerman said –
"Federal and state government initiatives, including transmission projects identified in the Integrated System Plan, and mechanisms delivering firming capacity, such as the Commonwealth's Capacity Investment Scheme, can address many of the identified risks over most of the 10-year horizon, if delivered to schedule.”
This reinforces the urgency of the transition to renewables.
The importance of our plan to get to 82 per cent –
For affordability.
For cleaner energy.
AND for reliability.
It also shows the hollowness of those arguing for a “pause” in the rollout of renewables and extension of coal facilities – including nuclear proponents.
Those calling for extensions ignore that increasing coal outages are the core risk to reliability.
Replacing them with cleaner, more reliable sources of energy needs to be an urgent priority to keep the lights on.
The Federal Opposition has a detail-free plan to roll out nuclear across the country.
One of the many problems with their plan is that their favoured technology – small modular reactors – simply do not exist in a proven, commercial form anywhere in the world.
It's like saying in 1960 your transport policy is to invest in personal jet packs/nuclear powered or flying cars.
Experts have put a timeline of the 2040s – at best – that we would see the technology in operation in Australia.
The inescapable conclusion of the Liberal plan is that it relies on extending high-polluting, uneconomic and unreliable coal plants through the 2030s to fill the gap until nuclear supposedly arrives.
This would be both at a significant cost to the taxpayer, and as the AER confirmed at Senate Estimates last month, an ongoing threat to the reliability of our energy grid.
But I also want to emphasise the role of clean energy and renewables as a form of domestic energy security.
Australia has some of the best wind and solar resources in the world –
The highest solar radiation of any continent, receiving 10,000 times more solar than our energy grid could use.
Consistent and widespread on and offshore wind resources – currently contributing 11 per cent of our energy mix.
In fact, we are the international envy when it comes to our abundance of natural resources – including in critical minerals.
And the current geopolitical circumstances are reinforcing just how important this energy independence will be.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the impacts of Russia’s illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine exposed deep vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
The war in Ukraine has had devastating impacts on energy security, with much of Europe held captive over the supply of oil and gas from Russia.
We have seen how this European energy supply crisis has cascaded across the world, highlighting the flaws in energy security reliant on concentrated fossil fuel supply chains.
By contrast, renewable energy has in-built security advantages.
There’s no geopolitical crisis that can stop the sun shining or the wind blowing.
Last month, the International Energy Agency released the 2023 World Energy Outlook, with energy security a central theme.
And as the report says, the Russian invasion has shown that, and I quote:
“Domestically produced clean energy can clearly be an asset at times of geopolitical stress.”
And I’d argue there’s no nation better set up to take advantage of this than Australia.
Of course, a reliable renewable system must be buttressed with robust storage, transmission and where possible, sovereign domestic manufacturing of key elements of the renewable supply chain – that’s exactly what our policies are designed to achieve.
Let me be clear – those who seek to undermine the transformation through national security grounds are simply looking for another outlet for their anti-renewable campaign.
The fact is – reducing reliance on and exposure to international fossil fuel headwinds is good for domestic energy security, and our plans to transform our energy grid to 82 per cent renewable energy is essential for both this, and energy reliability.
In closing –
Those who attack the clean energy transformation and the need to get to net zero continue to ignore a fundamental point –
If we do not act, Australia will be left behind.
If we do not act, our economy will be weaker.
Our energy grid will be less reliable.
We miss out on energy security advantages.
And Australians will miss out on the affordability benefits of renewable energy.
As IEA Head Fatih Birol said -
"The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it's unstoppable. It's not a question of 'if', it's just a matter of 'how soon' – and the sooner the better for all of us."
We know it’s true.
And here, we intend to get on with it.