Interview with David Speers, ABC Insiders

DAVID SPEERS: Well, Chris Bowen has had a busy week at home unveiling those 2035 climate targets and he faces a pretty busy week ahead here selling the message of what Australia is doing when it comes to climate action and trying to secure the rights to host next year's big climate summit. I caught up with the Energy and Climate Minister a short while ago.
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DAVID SPEERS: Chris Bowen, welcome to the UN.

CHRIS BOWEN: Great to be here at the UN with you, David.

DAVID SPEERS: And I should point out there are some protesters out on the street, nothing to do.

CHRIS BOWEN: Not against us.

DAVID SPEERS: Nothing to do with us, but that's what happens in the week of General Assembly. You might hear that from time to time. Look, I want to start, obviously, on climate change. It's 10 years on from the Paris Agreement being signed, and it's not on track to be met, the goals that were laid out in that agreement. The US is also withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. I mean, how would you describe where the world is at? Is enough being done on climate change?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, let me start with the positive. Renewable energy investment is continuing at a rapid pace, $2 trillion, double the investment in fossil fuels. Sometime this year, renewables will surpass coal as the world's largest source of energy. Sometime next year, wind and solar separately will surpass nuclear as sources of energy. So massive amounts of renewable energy investment, including obviously in China and India and in the global south in developing countries. But you're right, I mean the world's action has taken us from a track of 4 degrees warming 10 years ago to now somewhere between 2 and 2.8. That's good progress, but not yet enough. So we've all got to keep going.

DAVID SPEERS: Well, let's look at the target that you announced the other day. It has faced some criticism from both ends of the spectrum. 

CHRIS BOWEN: Inevitably, David.

DAVID SPEERS: Well, perhaps. From those who argue it's not enough or not aligned with that goal of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees, is the target you announced, the 62 to 70 per cent by 2035, aligned with that goal?

CHRIS BOWEN: Yes, and let me make a couple of points if I can. Firstly, as the Climate Change Authority said in their advice to us, and that's chaired by Matt Kean, he's got the chief scientist, other eminent scientists, people with strong experience in climate, environment and business, for Australia to play its role in 1.5, we should have maximum possible effort, and then they determined maximum possible effort, their advice to us was 62 to 70 for reasons we can go into. So maximum possible effort is what's required. Now, you can look at the IPCC over the last few reports, which has said 68 per cent from the world is what's required. That's well within our target range. So it very much is 1.5 aligned. And also, can I make the –

DAVID SPEERS: - 62 per cent wouldn't be, though, is it?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, 62 to 70 is our range.

DAVID SPEERS: But 62 per cent is…

CHRIS BOWEN: And that is our maximum effort. Now, let me just point out to you, David, and our listeners and viewers, just how ambitious it is, because I've seen some commentary from people saying it's not ambitious and with all due respect, some people get to deliver commentary, I have to deliver results. And this is a target very much focused on results and the results involved in this, even at 62, would be a halving of our emissions from today, a per capita halving from 2005 of about 78 or 80 per cent per capita. It's the equivalent of taking transport emissions out of our economy twice between now and 2035. This is very ambitious. It's doable. It's achievable. As I always said, it would have to be.

DAVID SPEERS: I'll get to that.

CHRIS BOWEN: Yes.

DAVID SPEERS: But if it's 62 per cent that we hit, is that aligned with keeping warming by 1.5?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, as I said, our target is 62 to 70.

DAVID SPEERS: Okay.

CHRIS BOWEN: For us to play our role in keeping the world to 1.5 as a player, I dismiss those who say what we do doesn't count because we're a relatively small emitter. That just doesn't stack up. This is our maximum possible effort, which therefore means it is, in keeping with the CCA advice, 1.5 aligned.

DAVID SPEERS: So to those who say on the other side that this is going to be too harmful to households and business and that there's not really a clear plan on how you achieve this target, would you concede that you still do need to work out a lot of how you're going to get there?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, we've outlined- we didn't just release a target. We released the Net Zero Plan, six sector plans, some new policies, $2 billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, money for EV charging, importantly a focus on energy performance and energy efficiency. Now, of course, over the next 10 years, we'll keep looking at how we're going and we'll keep updating what is done. We're not here to pretend to you. I wouldn't pretend to you that I know exactly every movement between now and the next 10 years and every bit of technology and cost and stuff.

DAVID SPEERS: But let me ask you this. The Climate Change Authority says renewables will have to make up more than 90 per cent of the energy grid by 2035, within 10 years. Is that your view as well?

CHRIS BOWEN: So let's just be clear about this, because there was one piece of advice the Climate Change Authority gave us on last Friday, which we announced last Thursday just gone, which is the target, 62 or 70, do we accept it or reject it? That's the only recommendation before us, and we obviously decided to accept it.

DAVID SPEERS: So everything else the Climate Change Authority said doesn't necessarily mean it's your plan?

CHRIS BOWEN: Everything else- no, well what they then did is in their report to me, quite rightly, is ran through some of the possibilities as to what achieving that might look like. Now, of course, there is opportunity to overachieve on some things, underachieve on others, et cetera. Over the next 10 years, that will play out. Those things that, to pre-empt you going through a list of all the things that they said might be possible, they are just simply CCA commentary on the sorts of things that might happen should we meet that target.

DAVID SPEERS: Okay, but I'll still go through some of them because this is a pretty important one. Will we need more than 90 per cent renewables over the next decade?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, obviously we –

DAVID SPEERS: Because you've had a target for 2030 of 82 per cent renewables.

CHRIS BOWEN: 82 per cent, correct.

DAVID SPEERS: We’ll keep talking about that. What's the target for 2035?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, if you look at the ISP, we'll keep going after 2030. I'm confident we'll reach the 82 per cent in 2030 target, right? I know there's plenty of commentary saying we won't.

DAVID SPEERS: [indistinct]

CHRIS BOWEN: And it's an ongoing challenge. I'm not pretending it's easy or automatic. But if you look at the sorts of things we're doing, last year, 4.4 gigawatts of new energy added to the grid, a pipeline of 15 gigawatts. That's a lot. A thousand Australians a day putting in in a home battery now. Half of those roughly are putting solar on the roof for the first time as well. So we're making good progress. But, yes, I'm not here putting my feet on the desk saying that's done. That remains an ongoing challenge.

DAVID SPEERS: So what's the 2035 target for renewables?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, we haven't set a particular target.

DAVID SPEERS: Why not?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well what we have done is set our emissions reduction target and then we'll continue to deliver.

DAVID SPEERS: But you've had a renewables target for 2030.

CHRIS BOWEN: Yes.

DAVID SPEERS: And that's difficult as you say. Is it so difficult that you don't want to set one for 2035?

CHRIS BOWEN: What we have done is I've set up a NEM review led by Professor Tim Nelson, which is looking at the settings beyond 2030. It's done, that review, led by Professor Nelson. It's done an excellent job. It's been very widely and warmly received across the energy market, which is a bit unusual to have a report which everyone says, yes, they've done a good job. So that will govern our approach.

DAVID SPEERS: But no target?

CHRIS BOWEN: That will govern our approach from 2030 to 2035. Obviously, once we get to 82 per cent renewable in 2030, which I am working towards achieving and have some confidence we will achieve, then we'll keep going to ensure that we have a reliable grid and a cheaper grid, and that means more renewables.

DAVID SPEERS: Okay, but I still don't know why you have a target for 2030 but not 2035?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, because we've set the 2030 target for renewable energy. We're still working to achieve that, and we'll update plans as we go, informed by the ISP, GenCost, the expert advice.

DAVID SPEERS: So it could be less than 90 per cent?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I think informed by the expert advice, David, is the correct, proper and methodical way of doing these things.

DAVID SPEERS: Which could be less than 90 per cent?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, you could say it could be less, could be more.

DAVID SPEERS: I'm asking you.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, obviously, 82 is a high number. I will say this, David, when you get to a number like 82 and then to continue to go after that, you've got to keep working. The low-hanging fruit, if you like, disappears.

DAVID SPEERS: But to that end- okay. So to that end, again, the Climate Change Authority says wind power needs to quadruple. Now, you've had a lot of trouble rolling out the wind power to date for all sorts of reasons that we know. There's the environmental approvals, there's the community concerns, all of this. Is it possible to quadruple wind power?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I mean, that's one of the- again, that's one of the metrics they put out as a possibility. They also said six times, I think, increase in grid-scale storage. Now, that is a big lift, but again, we're making huge progress. Just last week, amongst the many things, I announced the latest capacity investment scheme auction for 16 very big batteries right across the country. Again, a lot of gigawatt hours of support for three and a half- equivalent to cover three and a half million homes in the peak. So you can look at that. They also, I think, double the rooftop solar rate that we have at the moment. And again, we're making good progress.

DAVID SPEERS: Okay, but can you do these things?

CHRIS BOWEN: South Australia just hit 50 per cent of Australia- South Australian houses now have solar on their roofs.

DAVID SPEERS: Okay, but should regional Australia expect a quadrupling of wind power?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I think what regional Australia should expect is we'll continue to work with them, yes, to expand renewable energy, no question about that. We'll work with them on community consultation, on planning, which is more a state issue, but –

DAVID SPEERS: Should they expect a quadrupling of wind power?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, they should expect us to continue to work for more renewable energy, but they should also expect us to be saying the projects will be in the right place at the right time. Not every proposal's in the right place. The planning system is there for a reason. It's not automatic approvals. Murray Watt is working on planning reforms, but that's not going to be about automatic approvals. That’s going to be faster or –

DAVID SPEERS: It might not be a… okay, okay.

CHRIS BOWEN: Faster, yes or no.

DAVID SPEERS: So again, it might not be a quadrupling of wind power?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, again, that's one of the- again, it comes back to my original point. Climate Change Authority had commentary in there about the sorts of things we could expect. Actually, what we look at is the ISP and its plans going forward. That'll be updated in the coming period.

DAVID SPEERS: Again, this comes back to whether you had a plan to hit this target or not, doesn't it?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, again, Net Zero Plan, Energy Sector Plan, Industry Sector Plan, all out on Thursday. I'm sure many people haven't had a chance to look at it yet.

DAVID SPEERS: Okay, but you can't say what renewables will be or need to be. You can't say how much wind power they'll have to be. What about electric vehicles? Again, the Authority says half of new cars sold between now and 2035 will need to be electric vehicles.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, we've never had an EV sales target, and we don't have an EV sales target because we believe in choice. I do note that many manufacturers are withdrawing internal combustion engines in the 2030s. They won't be available for sale, right? So the market will...

DAVID SPEERS: So this will automatically happen?

CHRIS BOWEN: The market will drive a lot of behaviour, but so will our new vehicle efficiency standard, which is already driving many more models available for Australians. EV sales were about 1 per cent when we came to office, about 10 per cent now. I'm pleased with that. Obviously, I want to see a high take-up, but we're not about mandating a particular sales level because I think Australians should make that that choice.

DAVID SPEERS: Can you do all of this without having to spend any more taxpayers' money beyond what's been committed? The Prime Minister seemed to say the other day that no more would be spent.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, we certainly see the vast majority of investment coming from the private sector. That's what the Prime Minister said, and he's right about that. But we see a role for us to unlock that investment. So take the CESC for example. It spends say $4 billion to unlock $12 billion of private sector investment, creating 4,000 jobs. That's the sort of approach we can take. The Treasurer and I released the Cleaner Fuels Program during the week as well, $1.1 billion investment. Now, that won’t- that $1.1 billion won't build the cleaner fuels industry in Australia. Private sector investment will. That $1.1 billion will unlock it and unleash it. That’s the fund –

DAVID SPEERS: But will- but will there need to be more, is the question or is that it?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, no, the budget papers outline our- plus the $8 billion we announced during the week, which is no small amount. Again, those who said we're not doing enough, we just put $8 billion out the door, a little bit more. That takes our total investment to $75 billion. That's a lot. But that's what we've decided to do. That's our plan.

DAVID SPEERS: And that's it?

CHRIS BOWEN: And that's what we're sticking to.

DAVID SPEERS: And is that it?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, that's what we think we need to do at this point.

DAVID SPEERS: At this point?

CHRIS BOWEN: Yeah.

DAVID SPEERS: There might be more?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, you know, every- we haven't announced the health or educational, defence budgets for the next 20 years either.

DAVID SPEERS: No, but the PM did say the other day this week there would be no more.

CHRIS BOWEN: The PM's right. The PM’s right. We have made the decisions, they're all announced, and we expect that money to unlock very much larger amounts of private sector money.

DAVID SPEERS: But you might have to spend more?

CHRIS BOWEN: That's what the Prime Minister said, and that's what I'm saying.

DAVID SPEERS: That you might have to spend more?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, what we said is- what we have decided to spend is what we've announced.

DAVID SPEERS: Okay.

CHRIS BOWEN: Everything we've decided to do is what we've announced.

DAVID SPEERS: You've acknowledged that support for this target will live or die basically on how people feel about their power prices.

CHRIS BOWEN: Sure.

DAVID SPEERS: When will they start to fall, I guess is the question?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, we're already seeing impacts of policies with downward pressure on prices. So, for example, the 60,000 Australians who put a home battery in since 1 July, that's helped them. Many of those were never- many of those people will never get an energy bill again in their lives.

DAVID SPEERS: Yeah, but a lot of people can't afford that, even with the rebate.

CHRIS BOWEN: But they're also helping the rest of the grid, those who haven't got batteries, because with 60,000 fewer homes calling on the grid at night, that's a lot less people calling on coal and gas, which is the most expensive form of energy in the gas.

DAVID SPEERS: So when do they see that? When do they see –

CHRIS BOWEN: We're already starting to see early signs of that having an impact, but we'll see more with the next default market offer. We'll see that play out.

DAVID SPEERS: We'll see the prices come down?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, we'll see it play out over coming years. If you look at, again, what the experts say, this is not a political promise. The Australian Energy Market Corporation, with all their work, and this has effectively been backed by the Treasury, found energy prices coming down 13 per cent if we stick with the plan of rolling out more of the renewable energy over the next decade.

DAVID SPEERS: Do you think those who say we should abandon Paris, drop the net zero target, are cranks and crackpots?

CHRIS BOWEN: I think there's both. I think there's people of bad faith in Australian politics exploiting this issue, the National Party. They are, in my view, betraying regional Australia, which, as the national risk assessment I put out during the week showed, people in regional Australia have a lot at stake in dealing with climate change. Farmers know that. I think the National Party betrays farmers and people in regional areas when they engage in this cheap politics. There are people with genuine concerns and issues which need to be worked through and we've got to communicate to those people and correct the disinformation that people like Barnaby Joyce and Matt Canavan and Colin Boyce, National Party MP this week said climate change isn't real, denied climate change, member of the Alternative Government of Australia. We've got to correct that disinformation. So people going about their business hearing that disinformation, they've got to hear from the rest of us about why it's wrong. So there are people who I’ve- there are people who engage in climate change denial, who just ignore all the science, and I think that's deeply unfortunate. I don't have any respect for that. For genuine Australians going about their business listening to the debate who are confused, of course I have respect for what they are concerned about and the need to give them the correct and factual information against the disinformation they hear from so many on the right of politics.

DAVID SPEERS: Do you have respect for Donald Trump on this issue?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the President has views about this, about climate change. I have my views. I'm not here to comment on the views of others in other political systems. I'll comment on the views of my opponents and colleagues in Australia. And I don't have much respect for those in federal politics who engage in climate change denial, soft or hard.

DAVID SPEERS: Is it true the Treasury modelling the Government produced is based on the US staying in Paris and continuing with emissions reduction?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the Treasury modelling is based on world action and we are seeing world action.

DAVID SPEERS: Yeah, but is it based on a time when the US was still committed to the Paris Agreement?

CHRIS BOWEN: The Treasury modelling is based on other countries and trading partners of ours reducing their reliance on fossil fuels, which I think is the- as the…

DAVID SPEERS: But is it out of date with Trump withdrawing from the Paris?

CHRIS BOWEN: No, because I think as the evidence- I opened with the fact that renewable energy is double fossil fuel investment, for example, and that renewables will surpass coal this year as the world's largest source of energy. The Treasury modelling isn't based on any political decisions by any other countries, the United States or anybody else. It's based on the practical, real market facts.

DAVID SPEERS: The climate summit that Australia wants to host next year, Turkiye still has not pulled out of this contest. What's going to happen this week on that? Will Australia end up winning this summit?

CHRIS BOWEN: We have discussions with our Turkish friends this week. We have overwhelming support for our bid. This situation hasn't really changed for a while, David. We have the overwhelming support from countries around the world for our bid but –

DAVID SPEERS: You just need Turkiye to drop out?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the UNFCCC rules rely on consensus, and that means really, yes, the two bidding countries sorting it out. Otherwise –

DAVID SPEERS: So how do you convince them to get out?

CHRIS BOWEN: Otherwise it goes to Bonn in Germany, which would be an unfortunate result. I'm not going to negotiate with my Turkish counterpart, with all due respect, as much as I love and respect you, David, through you here on the lawns of the UN.

DAVID SPEERS: But are you confident?

CHRIS BOWEN: I'll do it privately with him.

DAVID SPEERS: No, well- why not- just a couple of other issues outside your portfolio, but coming up here at the UN, obviously the PM is here to also recognise Palestinian statehood, along with the leaders of Canada, the UK and France. A bunch of republicans in Congress here in the United States have written an open letter warning that this is a move that's going to imperil Israel's security and that there could be consequences from doing so. Does that worry you at all?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, we’ll- we obviously have set Australia's foreign policy based on our interests and our values. And while everyone's entitled to their views, we will determine Australian foreign policy, not anyone else, and we've determined a couple of things. That the time is right, in concert, as you said, with like-minded countries. We've been waiting 80 years for a two-state solution and that we now see recognising Palestine as a step towards a two-state solution, not the result of negotiations. And to your question, I believe that Israel will be truly free and secure when Palestine is. That's what I believe. And vice versa. And vice versa. That these two states have to come to a peaceful coexistence understanding. We're a long way from that as we speak and we believe, as other countries have reached a similar conclusion, that recognising Palestine this week is a meaningful step forward to that two-state solution which has eluded us for 80 years.

DAVID SPEERS: And finally, the Prime Minister is clearly hoping to meet with Donald Trump and no doubt will run into him and have a handshake, but a sit-down meeting, there's still nothing scheduled. How much does this concern you?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I just point to this, David. There are plenty of world leaders who've met with Donald Trump who haven't had good outcomes, who've got very high tariffs, who've come over and had meetings and left optimistic and then have got high tariffs. The way Anthony Albanese has managed the relationship, we had the world's lowest tariff on Australia.

DAVID SPEERS: So a meeting doesn't matter?

CHRIS BOWEN: So results matter. Results matter.

DAVID SPEERS: Not the meeting?

CHRIS BOWEN: Results matter, David. I mean, of course, the Prime Minister's made it clear he's very happy to meet, but results matter. And this Prime Minister and this Foreign Minister and this Government have delivered pretty good results when it comes to the bilateral relationship.

DAVID SPEERS: It sounds like a sit-down meeting then is not a priority necessarily?

CHRIS BOWEN: It's not my place to announce these things, David. I’m a humble Cabinet Minister.

DAVID SPEERS: As a Cabinet Minister, it's not a priority for you to see this happen?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, of course, of course, meeting with the President is always a good thing, but I'll tell you what's even more important is results. I'd much rather Anthony Albanese get a great result for our economy with the world's lowest tariff, without a meeting, than to have a meeting and get the opposite result, which is what many other world leaders have found themselves in that situation.

DAVID SPEERS: Chris Bowen, wish you well for the week ahead here at the UN.

CHRIS BOWEN: Plenty happening, plenty happening. Good to be with you.