Interview with Michael Rowland, ABC News Breakfast

BRIDGET BRENNAN: Peter Dutton will finally put a price tag on the Coalition's nuclear ambitions today, unveiling modelling that shows it will be $263 billion cheaper than Labor's plans. The modelling by Frontier Economics says by 2050 the Coalition's plan would see 38 percent of power coming from nuclear.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Now that is starkly at odds with CSIRO research that gave a clear thumbs down to the nuclear option, saying it would be twice as expensive as renewables.

Lots to unpack here as both sides crunch the numbers ahead of an election and joining us now from Sydney is the Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen. Good morning to you.

CHRIS BOWEN: Good morning, Michael.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Do you accept the Coalition's nuclear policy would be $263 billion cheaper than your renewable policy?

CHRIS BOWEN: Oh, maybe they'll throw in the Harbour Bridge and the Sydney Opera House as well with that sort of costing.

No, look, we'll go through the details today. I don't believe they've released it to the ABC or the ALP funnily enough, but clearly they have had to do some mathematical gymnastics to make this in any vague way add up. They've even downgraded their costings of renewable energy by around $30 billion over the last couple of weeks. If that policy didn't last past an election why would their nuclear costings last any longer?

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Okay. Well according to the modelling by Frontier Economics, which your department has used as well, renewables will come in at 594 billion, nuclear at 331 billion.

CHRIS BOWEN: Yeah, and they said 625 billion a couple of weeks ago. They're making it up as they go along. And to reach that figure, firstly, what they've done is said AEMO's got it right for everything except transmission. And then they've just doubled the cost of transmission and just plucked a figure out of the air and they've implied, which I imagine we'll see in the costings today, that nuclear needs less transmission, which it doesn't. Spoiler alert, it doesn't.

You've still got to get the electricity around the country. I'm not sure how they're going to get the nuclear power into the grid, maybe by carrier pigeon, if they're going to assert that you somehow need less transmission.

We'll go through all the details, but they've had to make some very heroic assumptions here and they've had to really stretch the truth to try and get some very dodgy figures.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Okay. So you don't accept that 594 billion figure arrived at by Frontier Economics for renewables?

CHRIS BOWEN: No, of course not. And what they've also done is very clearly in their costings of their own policy rejected the CSIRO and AEMO's work.

Now CSIRO and AEMO have been talking about the cost of nuclear since way before we were in office as being the most expensive form of energy available.

I mean fundamentally, Michael, what the Coalition is asking the Australian people to believe is this: That they can introduce the most expensive form of energy, and it'll end up being cheaper. I mean it won't pass the pub test; it won't pass the sniff test because it is just a fantasy.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Okay. But are you still claiming, as you have previously, that your policy costs $122 billion and does that $122 billion include the cost of new poles and wires?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, Michael, that's the AEMO ISP net present value of the investment needed in large-scale transmission - large scale-  

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Yeah, but you've been quoting that so do you stand by that figure?

CHRIS BOWEN: -utility and generation. Yeah, because- yes, because it's the figure in the ISP which is the most detailed roadmap of any energy system in the world.

Now compare that to what the opposition's done, which is just pluck out a new figure for the cost of transmission, apparently made some magical assumptions about how much they'll need, and therefore said, "We can introduce- hey presto, we can introduce the most expensive form of energy in the world, and it'll be cheaper". I can't wait to see their figuring.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Okay, and there'll be lots of debate about that today. One thing we do know is that under the Coalition's plan those ageing coal fired power stations will stay open beyond the middle of next decade when most of the operators say they'll have to shut. Is that realistic?

CHRIS BOWEN: No, I mean obviously that's terrible news for Australia's emissions, but it's also terrible news for the reliability of our energy grid.

The most- the biggest threat to reliability in our energy system is coal fired power now. We are dealing with closures- I mean outages, breakdowns on a daily basis and that is what is the biggest threat to the reliability of our energy system, and it's a recipe for blackouts to keep ageing coal fired power stations in the grid or longer. That's what they're proposing.

Again, I look very much forward to debating this over the coming hours, days, weeks and months in the lead up to the next election because their plan will not survive contact with reality.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Okay, we are fast approaching that election. Elections are time for governments to be held accountable. Chris Bowen, does Labor regret promising back in 2022 that power prices would fall by $275 a year for Australians by next year?

CHRIS BOWEN: I don't regret obviously pointing out that renewables are the cheapest form of energy and that we will get to 82 percent renewables, which would be a big boost to affordable energy in Australia, and as has been evidenced by the research by the Australian Energy Market Commission in recent weeks, that increase in renewable energy will see prices come down.

Now, we released modelling in opposition that was very detailed about the impact of our policies. I look forward to debating the competing plans before the Australian people at the next election.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: But in the end we're in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, do you regret promising back then that power prices will be $275 cheaper, which they clearly will not be by next year?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well obviously we're dealing with a different set of circumstances internationally. Australia's increase in energy prices have been less than a lot of comparable countries.

We've delivered billions of dollars of energy bill relief which has been the appropriate thing to do to help Australians through, which has been opposed by the Liberal and National Party.

The next election will be about the competing plans for the next three years and beyond. I mean what the Liberal Party will propose is, based on what I've read in the newspapers this morning, 38 percent nuclear by 2050, which will be one of the highest nuclear penetrations in the world, which is the most expensive form of energy of course available to any energy system at the moment. So good luck to them explaining that to the Australian people.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: Okay, Chris Bowen, thanks for your time. And on a personal note, thank you for being one of the few ministers, and in a former life shadow ministers, who came on for our viewers and answered the tough questions in the good times and the bad.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, Michael, congratulations to you on a stellar innings. Enjoy the- we won't call it a sleep-in but perhaps the more normal sleeping hours for a little while, and I'm very much looking forward to you unfurling the next chapter of your very substantial contribution to public life in Australia.

MICHAEL ROWLAND: I appreciate that, Chris, thank you so much.

CHRIS BOWEN: Cheers.