Interview with Patricia Karvelas, ABC Radio National

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Australia is on track to meet its 2030 climate target according to new modelling being previewed by the Federal Government today.

The Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen is touting the result as good news, releasing the findings ahead of a series of climate updates which will be unveiled in full tomorrow.

This comes after a difficult fortnight in which the world struggled to find consensus at global climate talks in Azerbaijan. Chris Bowen joins me in the studio. Minister, welcome.

CHRIS BOWEN: Nice to see you in person for a change, PK.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: It is nice to have you in the studio.

CHRIS BOWEN: Normally on the phone, yeah.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Now the figures you've released this morning suggest we'll just about reach the 43 percent reduction you've promised by 2030. So, we're on track but we weren't, what changed?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the policies we've implemented. Last year the forecast showed 37 percent emissions reduction as the base case, if you like, and this year the same analysis shows 42.6 percent emissions reduction. So, that's because we've put in place things like New Vehicle Efficiency Standards, rolling out the Capacity Investment Scheme which will underpin 32 gigawatts worth of new renewable energy, and our Safeguard Mechanism is working.

So those things that have come into place have seen those Departmental projections rise to now quite close, I must say, to our 43 percent emissions reduction target. It doesn't mean we take our foot off the accelerator or we're complacent, but it is encouraging news.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: You say, you know, encouraging but it was always meant to be a floor not a ceiling, right?

CHRIS BOWEN: Absolutely.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: And it's not   you're not even quite at the floor.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, 42.6 is encouraging compared to 37 percent last year, and compared to, you know, nowhere under the previous Government. So, we're catching up fast. Yes, it's not a ceiling, and yes, I'm not complacent. But, you know, in the light of, you know, plenty of doomsayers out there saying, "There's no chance of getting to 82 and there's no chance of 43", all that is ill placed and ill advised. We are on track. I'm not complacent but it is encouraging signs that the Government's policies are working, the private sector investment is flowing, and we're getting on with the job that we 100 percent need to do.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Some international critics say Australia's emissions have flatlined in recent years while other countries are seeing real reductions. Our emissions data from the year to June 2024 is actually up on the same time to June in 2022, that was of course when there was a Coalition Government. Does that concern you?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I don't agree with that presentation, PK. I mean   

PATRICIA KARVELAS: But like, I think people   

CHRIS BOWEN: Well hang on, let me just, let me just deal with the exact point you just put to me.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Okay.

CHRIS BOWEN: The latest quarterly shows that emissions in the year to June 2024 were 2.9 million tonnes less than the previous year. Now that's lower than any 12-month period under the previous Government. And their lowest across four quarters was the year to March 2022, when obviously there was, you know, there were other factors in play there in terms of that.

Now that's still 1 million tonnes higher than they are now. So, I don't agree with the analysis you've just put. We are making progress. Now of course a lot of the policies we've put in place will take a few years to start to have their impact.

Take the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards, for example. They don't come into force until 1 January, and even then they apply to new vehicles. It takes a long time to roll over the fleet and they apply gradually.

Now that's just a statement of fact. You don't turn the cruise ship around on a five-cent piece. But we've made good progress. I want to make more progress. And the forecasts that I'm outlining today show that we are making more progress.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Okay, you've only given us access to a very small part of the data today. You say it is good news. When you release the full results tomorrow will there be other elements that you can foreshadow here?

CHRIS BOWEN: Yeah, well, PK, we have actually, I've got to say, the most transparent regime in the world when it comes to progress reports. I mean there's us, the United Kingdom and now Malta who have instituted a Climate Change Authority, and we have a legislated annual progress report.

We release the Climate Change Authority's independent advice, which is, you know, written by them, not me. We release it at the same time. We release our response. We release the forecast. We release projections. We release the quarterly data. All that happens tomorrow in Parliament. I speak, the Opposition gets a chance to respond.

I mean that's pretty world's best practice when it comes to full accountability and transparency, which is appropriate given it's such an important thing for the country.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Now, there is now a lot of questions around the next target, 2035, and you're waiting on the Climate Change Authority to give you advice first. I think that's meant to happen at the start, like within the start of next year. Why can't you guarantee it'll happen before the election, so we have transparency around it?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I don't know when the election will be, PK.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Well, it has to happen by May, we know that.

CHRIS BOWEN: By May, yes, but, you know, I do not know when the Prime Minister will call the election. The Prime Minister and I work closely together but that's his decision and he'll tell the Governor General first.

But we act in accordance   I just mentioned our Climate Change Act. As I said, world's best practice in terms of rigour. It's unlawful to set a target before I get Climate Change Authority advice. We've put that rigour in as part of a Parliamentary process of negotiation as well, but we put the rigour in to ensure that process.

The previous Government set a, you know, a target and didn't even bother to tell the Climate Change Authority. We're not doing that. I've got to wait for Climate Change Authority advice. It'll come to me when they're ready. And they are looking at   they're well advanced but they're looking at the international developments and   

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Has   okay, so you say the international developments, I mean elephant in the room. Are you talking about Trump pulling out of Paris? Does that have an impact?

CHRIS BOWEN: No, I'm talking about the impact of world decarbonisation plans on us because we are integral to the world energy markets. So of course it has some impact. They look at our domestic circumstances. They look at what's happening around the world. They give me advice. I consider that advice. I then take it to Cabinet. Cabinet considers my position.

When that process is complete, not a day before, not a day after, that's when we release our 2035 targets.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: So do you think it needs to be known by the election?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well again, PK, with due respect, I do not know when the election will be. But I do know this   

PATRICIA KARVELAS: No, no, but   

CHRIS BOWEN: Hang on, hang on, hang on. I do know this. If there's a choice at the next election between us, who are achieving a 2030 target, and are putting in place strong plans, and an opposition which accidentally is leaving the Paris Accord, can't tell you what the 2030 target is   

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Well, they're not leaving. They've said they don't want to leave the Paris Accord.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, they've said that they won't have a 2030 target. I mean the Paris Accord's pretty essential. It's pretty essential to staying in the Paris Accord. They can't have a 2030 target. They're seeking office in 2025, and they can't tell you what their 2030 target is. They've got no clue about a 2035 target let alone. So, you know, if there's going to be a contest about this, I'm happy for our plans and our achievements to be judged compared to that vacuum   

PATRICIA KARVELAS: And you don't think it needs to be with the 2035 target being known?

CHRIS BOWEN: I think it needs to be with the government of Australia complying with the law of Australia, which means we will set our 2035 target when the legal process and the rigorous evidence is complete. Not before, not after. It might be before the election; it might be after. I don't know.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Why is it not necessary before the election?

CHRIS BOWEN: Because it's necessary to comply with the law. Now I   the law says, I've just outlined the process.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Yeah, I'm just, I'm just   honestly, I think it's a really obvious question. We either know or we don’t.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I think it's a pretty obvious answer that when the Climate Change Authority's completed its work and given the advice, I will then deal with it. Now that might be   you know, I do not know how that interacts with the election timetable. That's the straight answer.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Okay. State and Territory climate commitments alone could reduce Australian's emissions by 71 percent by 2035. Does that mean that we should treat that 71 percent reduction as a flaw?

CHRIS BOWEN: No, well I'm not start getting into pre empting targets, but I will say this. When we set our national target, we of course take into account State and Territory policies. We don't automatically assume that State targets are going to be met. We look at State and Territory policies and what policies they've put in place and what contribution that makes for the national target.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Now just in a couple of moments ago Joe Biden has addressed the press and he's talking about a ceasefire. Biden has said the Governments of Israel and Lebanon have accepted a US proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Is this the beginning of a new phase towards peace?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well obviously that's happened while I've been talking to you. I know Penny Wong will be very closely monitoring that and we will respond in due course.

But obviously any step towards peace in this terrible conflagration which the world and Gaza in particular has been subjected to over the last year would be a welcome development. But I'm not going to get into details. I'll leave that to Penny to respond fully after she's had a chance to fully digest the information.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Okay. Just returning, just finally to the fallout from the COP conference. You've come back from those talks. Yesterday we heard concerns from one Pacific campaign that fossil fuel lobbyists outnumbered delegates from the region. Did those with a stake in slowing climate action have too much influence at the talks?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well at a COP of course the negotiations are done by Ministers. Ministers alone. There's no one else in the room when Ministers are negotiating. Not civil society, not fossil fuel lobbyists, no one. Those negotiations, there's no secret, this time were difficult. Australia was arguing for strong and progressive action in good company, in concert with lots of other countries and working closely with ministerial colleagues, particularly the Deputy Prime Minister of Fiji and the Minister of Samoa who was there, and Minister of Solomon Islands as well, who I was, you know, working as closely as we could with, and also obviously our like mindeds, you know, that we were negotiating with. But it was a difficult conference. There were countries arguing for less, less than we were arguing for. But that was about ministerial negotiation, not about, you know, lobbyists one way or another.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: You've been lobbying, if I can use the word in a very different context, to have the COP31 talks held in Australia. There were some expectations that would be confirmed. It wasn't. When are we likely to find that out?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the COP decision was requesting Australia and Türkiye, who's the other bidder, to try and resolve this by the first half of next year. We have very, very strong support from our group. We're in a constituency, there's 29 voters. We have very, very strong support from the other countries in that group. I'm very pleased with that, but also the COP system is meant to work on consensus, i.e., the system is designed for, you know, discussions once both countries see who's got the most support. I'm very pleased with the amount of support that Australia has, but that conversation with Türkiye has a little longer to run.

PATRICIA KARVELAS: Chris Bowen, always lovely to speak to you. Thank you.

CHRIS BOWEN: Always lovely to see you, thanks PK.