Interview with Sarah Ferguson, ABC 730

SARAH FERGUSON: Chris Bowen, welcome to 7.30.

CHRIS BOWEN: Great pleasure.

SARAH FERGUSON: The PM says Donald Trump has promised a perfect friendship. Will you be able to use that perfect friendship to persuade Donald Trump not to withdraw from the Paris Agreement?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I think the truth is, Sarah, that anybody who predicts US politics or geopolitical situations more broadly based on the experience of the last eight years is taking a very brave punt.

SARAH FERGUSON: But we do know, we know what Donald Trump thinks about climate change.

CHRIS BOWEN: That's right. But in terms of our interactions, we will act guided by our national interest and our values. We'll be doing that bilaterally with the United States. I'll be doing it representing Australia at the COP, and that's the approach that we'll take across the board.

SARAH FERGUSON: Is there any concern that Donald Trump could go further, not just pull out of the Paris Agreement, but pull out of the UN negotiating system altogether?

CHRIS BOWEN: The UNFCCC? Yes. That has been flagged. We don't know yet, and that would be of a different magnitude to last time. That is true.

SARAH FERGUSON: Just to come back to that question, though, I mean, you're in the position at the moment, no matter how much work you put into this gruelling process that we'll talk about, as soon as the Trump presidency begins, you face that, that prospect that he will withdraw from Paris.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I think just a few fundamental points, Sarah, about the United States. The election of a new president doesn't change some fundamentals, regardless of what approach he takes. The fundamentals that the world will continue to warm and we need to act, point one. Point two, that the economics of renewable energy are so strong, and it is our national interest to embrace that and to expand renewable energy. And point three, the United States is responsible for just a bit more than 10 percent of the world's emissions. So, does that mean the rest of the 90 percent of us don't bother anymore, even if the US does withdraw action? No, it doesn't. That's not our approach. It won't be our approach, and it's not the approach of most international counterparts that I'm talking to.

SARAH FERGUSON: But it represents a serious threat to tackling the problem, given the world's largest economy, the second largest polluter.

CHRIS BOWEN: As I said, it's 10 percent, a bit more than 10per cent of the world's emissions. That's important. No question. The Albanese Government and the Biden Administration have been very closely aligned in policy and in personnel. But we respond to the circumstances as we see it, and we act in the national interest and according to our values, and at COPs and at other international forums, but the one I'm responsible for, the COP, will be continuing to argue for strong action across the board, internationally. And we're dealing with specific matters at this COP which need to be resolved so the world can move forward.

SARAH FERGUSON: We'll just come to that in a minute. But are you concerned that with America, if America is going to walk away, as it says it will, that that will have an effect on the ambitions of other countries? What will it mean for the Indians, for the Europeans?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, at this point, as I said, when I'm talking to international colleagues, no one is saying, "Let's give up". There are some people in each domestic debate who argue that. There are people in Australia who argue that, "Oh, Donald Trump's president, we don't need to worry about that anymore". That is fundamental -

SARAH FERGUSON: - Just excuse me for a moment. It's not a question of giving up or not giving up. It's the effect on a reduction in ambition, isn't it?

CHRIS BOWEN: Sure, sure. But even if a major power withdraws, that can be a time for middle powers to step up and to continue to argue for action. That's what I'll be doing. That's what Australia will be doing, and that's what middle powers like us, in my experience, like Germany and Canada and the United Kingdom, will be doing as well.

SARAH FERGUSON: What does it mean for China if the United States does withdraw from the international system? Does that make China the world's leader in climate change?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, again, let's see how China responds. China will be putting forward a 2035 target at some time in the next few months. They are the world's largest emitter, with a bit more than a third of emissions. They will be having an internal discussion about whether to take a strong role, a leadership role in emissions reduction or not. We'll see how that plays out in coming months.

SARAH FERGUSON: And what about the Pacific? If China does emerge as the global climate leader, does that have implications for Australia and for the Pacific?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, in the Pacific, I work very, very closely with my Pacific Ministerial counterparts, many of whom will be with me in the next week.

SARAH FERGUSON: Who were relying on the United States.

CHRIS BOWEN: Yeah who - and the Biden Administration worked closely with, of course. We'll just continue to engage. We're bidding to host COP with them. We are working closely with them at this COP, and that is not only the right thing to do for them, and the very existence of some Pacific nations is at, what's at question here. It's also in our national interest, in the geopolitical terms that you talk about.

SARAH FERGUSON: Let me just ask you quickly about that question about whether or not Australia is going to win the right to host a COP. Do you expect it, do you expect to be successful on that?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, there's a process which is underway. We're getting very strong support, but there's no agreed ballot date or ballot process under the UNFCCC rules. I'm, I'm very pleased with the amount of support we're getting from international partners, but there's some way to go yet.

SARAH FERGUSON: Now you are co-chairing the most important discussion at this year's COP, that is the funds for developing nations to tackle climate change. In that particular regard, will countries contribute enough money if the United States is no longer there, demanding stronger effort from around the globe?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, again, I mean, this is a hard task, Sarah. This is the, the new finance goal to replace the goal that was agreed at Paris. This would have been hard anyway with the geopolitical situation, Ukraine, Middle East, and it's a difficult question. We are facing questions about who contributes, what should be counted and what the total quantum should be. My job and the job of my co-chair, the Egyptian Minister, is to try and guide the conversation to try and reach consensus across 198 countries, which is never easy, as you can imagine, and I guess put the United States situation, add it to the list of challenges as we go. Does that mean we give up? No. Does it mean it becomes a little more complicated? Sure, but it's very important.

SARAH FERGUSON: Will we see Australia's new emissions target before the election?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I don't know when the election will be, Sarah. The Prime Minister might have told you, but he hasn't told me yet when he's planning on calling the election.

SARAH FERGUSON: When are you planning on releasing the target? It's due in February, isn't it?

CHRIS BOWEN: When the Climate Change Authority process, the Climate Change Act process, I'll be abiding by the law. The Climate Change Act we instituted made very clear it's world's best practice. Similar position to the United Kingdom and some others. I won't set a target until I've received advice from the Climate Change Authority, considered it, taken it to Cabinet, received the endorsement of the Cabinet. That's the process I'll follow.

SARAH FERGUSON: So, could Australia be late delivering its updated targets?

CHRIS BOWEN: Two countries have so far set their targets. The vast majority, 196, have not yet -

SARAH FERGUSON: - But it's due in February.

CHRIS BOWEN: - And countries talking about all sorts of timelines between now and the Brazil COP next year as to when they might lodge their target. I'll be complying with the Climate Change Act, and I'll be setting a target not a day earlier, not a day later than when I'm satisfied under that Act.

SARAH FERGUSON: What's the interim advice on what that target should be?

CHRIS BOWEN: I haven't received any interim advice.

SARAH FERGUSON: None whatsoever. There's no - what are the debates around? What kind of figures are you contemplating?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I'm not going to pre-empt figures, but the target has to be ambitious and achievable. There's no point being one or the other. It's got to be both. It's got to stretch the - it's got to drive behaviour, stretch behaviour. It's also got to be achievable. Anybody can set a target, you know, just nominate a figure. We'll be explaining how we can achieve that target when we do that. That's why it takes a while. This is not just, you know, setting a number. Australia's approach, this government's approach, has been to outline not only a target, but to outline in quite a lot of detail how we intend to get there, and that's a key point.

SARAH FERGUSON: Would you like to have that target in place before the election?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I'd like to have it in place not a day earlier and not a day later than when I'm satisfied that it's the right approach for our role in the world, our economic best interests. The world's climate emergency is Australia's jobs opportunity in many ways, but we've got to calibrate it and get it 100 percent right.

SARAH FERGUSON: Is climate change going to be a big issue at the election?

CHRIS BOWEN: Yes, it's a big issue at every election. There'll be a stark choice. There's one side of politics which is getting on with the job. We've seen new figures out just this week showing it's on track for 82 percent renewables, showing a big surge in investment. There's another side of politics which couldn't even tell you their 2030 target, let alone a 2035 target, and wants to pause all renewables while they wait for a nuclear fantasy to come on board. That's the clear and stark choice before the Australian people at the next election.

SARAH FERGUSON: Just on politics. Peter Dutton said there is an eerie parallel, is the phrase he used, between the US election result and what's happening in Australia on cost of living. Have you got enough time to turn public opinion around on whether or not the Albanese Government has done enough?

CHRIS BOWEN: Australia is not the United States. Obviously, we all look at elections, whether it's United States or the United Kingdom, and see what the patterns are and whether there's any teachings for us. But we're a different country. We're our own country. It'll be decided on our own issues. On cost of living, whether it's stage three tax cuts, whether it's free TAFE, whether it's reducing HECS-HELP debt. We have a very, very important story to tell and we'll be taking all the time it needs to tell it.

SARAH FERGUSON: But can you do that without a budget before an election?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, that's entirely a matter for the Prime Minister. But whether there's another budget or not, we have a very important story to tell. Of course, there's always more to do. We're not complacent. But cost of living has been - I can tell you, as a member of the Cabinet, the key focus of the Cabinet, and we've delivered a lot, and of course, we have a lot more to deliver and a lot more to talk about.

SARAH FERGUSON: Just on another topic, were you surprised to see Tony Abbott come out in support of Kevin Rudd?

CHRIS BOWEN: Look, Kevin Rudd's doing a great job and I think any serious person recognises that. Australia was prepared for this result, and that's in no small part due to Kevin Rudd's preparations. He has worked assiduously to prepare Australia, working with Penny Wong and Anthony Albanese and all of us to prepare us for either result in the election. He has left nothing on the table. I think it's good that serious people on both sides of politics have recognised that. Not everyone in the Liberal Party has recognised that, but it's good that it has been recognised by some.

SARAH FERGUSON: Chris Bowen, thank you very much indeed for joining us.

CHRIS BOWEN: Thank you, Sarah.