Press conference with Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy Josh Wilson, Canberra

CHRIS BOWEN: Cascading, compounding, concurrent – that's how the Australian Climate Service describes the impact of climate change on every community in our country. Cascading, it will get worse over time. Compounding, each impact of climate change will make another impact worse. And concurrent, communities will suffer the impacts of climate change in different ways at the same time and we'll have a lot to manage. So today, Assistant Minister Wilson and I are releasing the most comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on our country ever compiled. It's been developed by the scientists and experts at the Australian Climate Service. It's a report to government, not of government. It has been independently prepared. And the work of the Climate Service has been supported by the Bureau of Meteorology, the CSIRO, Geoscience Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, experts from across the Government.

The report that we're releasing today in total amounts to well over 1000 pages of analysis, and I want to thank the Australian Climate Service for their very significant work on this project of national importance. The report examines the impacts of climate change on obvious things that I think Australians well know and understand. Climate change impacts on natural disasters, for example. It's very comprehensive in that regard. But also things that Australians might not have thought about so much – impacts on things like supply chains, on telecommunications. There isn't an Australian community that isn't impacted by climate change going forward, and there isn't an Australian individual for whom those impacts won't be real and material. So at a time when the political debate is focused on the costs of action, both real and imagined, this report is a reminder, if we needed one ever, that the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.

To put it another way, it's a document that reminds us of the why when it comes to climate action. One thing that is very clear from this climate assessment is that our whole country has a lot at stake; that every Australian, regardless of where they live, has a lot at stake. But the report does make clear that some communities have a particular amount at stake – those who live in the outer suburbs, those who live in rural and regional Australia, and those who live in Northern Australia in particular. So anyone who says that that climate change only matters in the inner cities should read this report and reflect on their position. This report is very comprehensive and is being released in full with full supporting technical documents. Now, I'm not going to run through every element, of course, in this report because it's very comprehensive. But the service has assessed climate hazards and how they might impact on the future at three different global warming levels, 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees, and 3 degrees, and they outline the confidence levels with which they reach each finding.

Importantly, the report makes clear that the pattern of natural disasters that Australians are used to is not a reliable guide to the future. Some natural disasters will occur more frequently and in places and at times they haven't previously been common. Natural disasters will increase most dramatically in Queensland, New South Wales, the ACT, and Tasmania. And the amount spent on disaster recovery will increase dramatically over the coming decades. By 2050, the number of coastal communities located in high and very high risk areas will increase substantially. And if current population remains the same, that will represent an increase to 1.5 million people impacted in coastal areas by sea level rise, corrosion, and other impacts. People in Northern Australia, including the Northern Territory, North Queensland and North WA are exposed to multiple worsening natural disaster risks. People in Western Sydney and the western suburbs of other capital cities will be impacted by lengthened heatwaves under each scenario with all the concurrent health impacts. Extreme heat will impact on the productivity of outdoor workers, and the availability and affordability of insurance will worsen with flow-on impacts across the economy.

Telecommunications assets are particularly exposed to extreme hazards, and very importantly agriculture, farm productivity and farm profits have a lot at stake. With a high degree of confidence, the ACS predicts that the oceans around Australia will become more acidic, and longer marine heat waves with associated impacts on ecosystems will ensue. And the report says Australians will be impacted by a loss of important ecosystems and species by the middle of the century. Public health risks will become more pronounced, with significant potential for loss of life and strain on health systems, the report makes clear. Whether it be cropping, horticulture, cattle or sheep, fisheries, the report makes clear that Australians in regional areas will be big losers from unchecked climate change.

Now, again, there's a lot in this report, and I certainly encourage all Australians to carefully go through it. It's important that we don't gild the lily or downplay its impacts in any way. We have to be honest with the Australian people, and that's what Josh and I are being today.

But it's also important to point out, as I said before, that this report is a reminder of the why when it comes to climate change. We aren't working on reducing emissions for fun. The path to net zero is important. We're doing it because the impacts of our country are real, and importantly, the worst impacts are still avoidable. We are living in climate change now. It's no longer a forecast, a projection, or a prediction. It is a lived reality. And it's too late to avoid any impacts, but it's not too late to avoid the worst of the impacts. As the report makes clear, the difference in terms of impact between 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming, let alone 3, is very real for Australia. So hence, our efforts on mitigation must and will continue. We know from the International Panel on Climate Change that net zero by 2050 is the absolute bare minimum required to avoid 1.5 degrees of warming, hence the Government and the country remain committed to it.

But it's also important we remember, while this report is clearly confronting, that the economic dividend of action for our country is one replete with the best renewable energy resources in the world, is very real. We have the best renewable resources. We have great jobs and investments opportunities. So if we get it right, the opportunity for our country is enormous, just as the risk if we get it wrong is very real.

And today, I'm also releasing the National Adaptation Plan. Now this is the next step forward in the national conversation about adaptation. Not the first step, not the final word, because governments, all governments, will need to increasingly focus on adaptation, not today, but in the decades to come. Our government's already spent $3.6 billion on climate adaptation since coming to office, and indeed up to $9 billion on various measures that relate to adaptation, resilience, and disaster management. And this is an issue that governments of all persuasions, of all levels, but not just governments, the private sector, industry, business, communities, households will need to work together on in coming years. And so, the National Adaptation Plan is a framework for that conversation about how to crowd in the funding, how to ensure that we're all fulfilling our responsibilities, that we're working together on that task. And the National Adaptation Plan is the document we use to frame that conversation with governments and with industry.

So I'm going to ask Assistant Minister Wilson to add to those remarks, and then we'll take your questions.

JOSH WILSON: Thanks, Chris. And as Minister Bowen's done, I want to start by thanking the Australian Climate Service and all the scientists and stakeholders who put their expertise and effort into producing the most comprehensive, detailed, and science-backed analysis that we've ever produced on climate risk. Two thousand-plus participants, more than 250 climate risk experts and scientists, 40 roundtables, a really massive process and undertaking. And the delivery of these two resources do mark an important step forward in our capacity to understand climate risk and in our ability to adapt to the climate impacts we can't avoid, but more than anything, they show the enormous value of taking a serious and timely approach to dangerous climate change. They show that delay and denial would be enormously costly and harmful to our social, economic and environmental wellbeing. I think it's super obvious that we need a combination of evidence-based assessment and well-framed response to be applied at every level of government and from the private sector and in our communities. And we should do that work knowing that in many cases, smart adaptation will have co-benefits in terms of productivity and sustainability and cost of living.

The good news, as Chris has said, is that a lot of this work is already underway, and these new tools will support and improve the efforts we're already seeing right across the Australian community. And the good news is that from the outset, the Albanese Government has put Australia on a very different path in terms of both mitigation and adaptation, after what was by any measure a decade of incompetence and neglect, a wasted decade. But there's no doubt that the National Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan put us in a position to do the work that must be done in the future on a more concerted and coordinated basis.

CHRIS BOWEN: Thanks, Josh. Over to you guys. Greg?

JOURNALIST: Minister Bowen, are you concerned- Mark Carney's the latest leader to have talked down his country's climate commitments. Are you concerned that the global momentum on taking action is declining? And taking that into account, is there a risk that if Australia goes too far ahead of the curve, that we could be hit by the global inaction, but also the cost of taking action?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I think you're asking about something other than what we're releasing today, Greg. We're releasing the adaptation and risk assessment today, which makes clear the cost of action is smaller than the cost of inaction under any scenario, under any international scenario. But to go to your question, obviously governments are dealing with global headwinds when it comes to investment, but also progress in areas. So, as I've said before to you and more broadly, these things don't follow a linear line in the graph. But the fact of the matter is that Australians, I think, understand, as I said before, that there's great benefit for our country in action on climate change, and there's a cost to pay if the country and the world doesn't proceed to take action. Dan.

JOURNALIST: Minister, just based on what this report says and what you're saying about the knowing cost of inaction, how can you and how can the Government justify, when it comes to setting the 2035 target, do anything other than something with a seven in front of it and that is consistent with the science?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the Climate Change Act, which this government institute makes clear that Climate Change Authority must give due regard to the science and I must give due regard to the advice of the Climate Change Authority, and that is exactly what we will do. Andrew.

JOURNALIST: Minister, further to Greg's question, you've got a China that's belching out a lot of CO2, you've got a US president who is drill, baby, drill. The report quite promisingly focuses on adaptation, and you say that that's a priority. What do you see as the priority when it comes to adaptation, especially given the mortality deaths- sorry, the excess mortality figures that there are in various cities?

CHRIS BOWEN: I don't think, Greg- sorry, I don't think, Andrew, that we can say that one area of adaptation is an overriding priority against the others, because the report makes clear there's an impact on every element of Australian society here. So, yes, seawalls are important, and helping coastal communities is important, but so is dealing with the impacts of heatwaves where I live in Western Sydney and helping families deal with the fact that a heatwave will be longer each and every year as the climate warms. So is working with First Nations communities on the impacts there, which the report makes clear is real. So is implementing the National Health and Climate Change Strategy that Minister Butler has responsibility for. So all this is important. And as I said, we don't pretend it's easy. That's why the National Adaptation Plan is a framework for the discussion to have of all governments. Every government has something at stake here. The Commonwealth has a big responsibility. So do the states and territories, so do local governments, so does industry, and we're going to have to work together on this task. Katina.

JOURNALIST: Just on the- what do you say to people looking at this report and they see something like there's going to be flooding in Brisbane 300 days a year, flooding in Fremantle 200 days a year, more heatwaves in Sydney? How should people actually think about this? Should they be going, I've got to move house? Like, what do they need to be doing?

And just sort of, I guess, maybe related to that, pretty significant numbers, $600 billion-plus wiped off the value of the property market. Is that because houses will be uninsurable? What's the reasoning behind that?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the report makes clear that insurance will become increasingly a challenge, both in terms of affordability and availability, and that will have flow-on effects in the economy. I don't think that's a great surprise or secret. Already in parts of Australia, the insurance market is challenged. Look, I think it's important, Katina, to say that I think many Australians will find this report confronting. I don't think many Australians will be particularly surprised that climate change is and will have an impact on Australia. I would say to people, let's be clear-eyed about the challenges. Let's be realistic about the threats. But also, let's be optimistic about the future because if we take action, we can avoid the worst of the impacts. If we take action, we can create jobs and investment right across Australia. Many of the regions which have the most at stake are also the regions where we'll be creating a lot of jobs and investment in the pathway to net zero. Those areas that have powered Australia for so long, have powered us for decades – the type of power will change, the type of industry will change, but the jobs and investment will continue. So we have to be realistic that, yes, there is a lot at stake for our country when it comes to climate action, and a lot of people in this building should reflect on that. And when they focus on the costs of action, they should think about their responsibilities to their constituents and future generations as well when they engage in disinformation when it comes to climate. But there's also a lot at stake for our country in the upside of getting it right. I can't think of any other country in the world I'd rather be facing this challenge than Australia.

JOURNALIST: Just on the thread of earlier questions about some of the global inaction when it comes to climate change, isn't it the case that some of the risks outlined in this report, regardless of what Australia does and what target the Government adopts next week, that we're going to have to live with some of these risks because the rest of the world isn't doing as much as it should to deal with climate change?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I put it slightly differently. Even if emissions fell immediately tomorrow, there would still be impacts of climate change in our country. The report makes that clear. So yes, the world needs to keep working on emissions reduction. And the world is. There's been a tenet of questions about, perhaps I could put a pessimistic tenor about world action. And we're off to COP in a couple of months' time and there'll be a real discussion about where the world's at, and more countries will be setting their NDCs between now and then. And certainly we hope that countries are taking strong action. But countries are continuing with the journey. It's well over 80 per cent of countries- or economies, I should say, that are committed to net zero in some form. That continues, and there'll be bumps and headwinds along the journey. But I'll tell you what hasn't changed. The science hasn't changed. The world is warming. I'll tell you what else hasn't changed. The economics that renewables are the cheapest form of energy. So climate change action and various elements will go through sort of various iterations of fashion. But the science won't change, the economics won't change, and this government's commitment won't change.

JOURNALIST: Minister, doesn't it concern you, though, that President Trump, for example, isn't listening to the science, he isn't paying attention to the economics, he doesn't care that it is going to have an impact around the world?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the United States is a bit over 10 per cent of the world's emissions. That's a lot, but it's not 90. I'm not going to comment on the particular politics of other countries. I'm just going to say that Australia will continue with that. We work closely with other countries. I've been in talks with international colleagues as late as last week about comparing notes about our approach to COP and various other- and our own policies. And I could point to governments and countries around the world that are continuing to make progress, and that's important and good, and we continue to welcome that. Yes? Sorry, Greg, you've had a go, but I will come to you later, Greg, but everyone gets a go first.

JOURNALIST: Can you unpack what the report says about how many Australians have died from heat-related illness and the sorts of pressures that will put on the health system?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I'll quote the report. It says that the impacts on public health- public health risks will become more pronounced with significant potential for loss of life and strain on health systems. That's what the report says. Now, that's what I'll point you to. Again, that's confronting. It means that the national climate health strategy is important. Having climate impacts as a national health policy priority area is important. This government has done both those things and will continue to work with governments of all levels to ensure that we're responding over coming decades. Ryan?

JOURNALIST: The Climate Change Authority has recommended that we legislate regular updates to this process. Will you be adopting that recommendation?

CHRIS BOWEN: The National Adaptation Plan makes clear that we have work to do across the board with governments and we'll continue to work with governments and talk to them about our various responses. So we're not committing to that today. The National Adaptation Plan makes clear that we have work to do across the board. Greg, you get another go now.

JOURNALIST: Have you received the advice from the Climate Change Authority on 2035?

CHRIS BOWEN: Yes.

JOURNALIST: More on 2035?

CHRIS BOWEN: You asked a question, I answered it.

JOURNALIST: More on that question. When will we know more about it?

CHRIS BOWEN: Soon. I received it on Friday afternoon. I'm working through it. I'm giving it due and proper regard. You won't be the first to know what my recommendation is, the Cabinet will be the first to know. You'll be the second to know.

JOURNALIST: Minister, just on the financial burden that households will have to cop when it comes to dealing with climate change, dealing with the renewables transition, there are a range of figures in here talking about big-picture costs to the budget, big-picture costs to the loss of property value, for example. Households won't be receiving the $275 power bill promise or cut that you promised. What sort of degree will households have to cop for this financial burden of climate change, of the renewables transition? Is it going to all end up on the family budget?

CHRIS BOWEN: There's a remarkable opportunity as well for households to be at the centre of this journey in a way which puts them more in control of their assets, not less, and more in control of their decisions, not less, and maximising the savings at their disposal. In the old days, we all used to get an energy bill and that was our entire say in the matter. You just had to pay the energy bill, you had no further say. That is changing and will change. Now, Australians have a power station on their roof and in their garage and in their driveway with their batteries. As of today, 55,846 Australians have installed a cheaper home battery since 1 July, more than a gigawatt hour of capacity. Those Australians are increasingly in charge of their own assets, and some of them are signing up to VPP arrangements where they can buy and sell to maximise their situation. So they're not getting a bill, they're getting a rebate. Not every Australian can do that right now, but many, many thousands of Australians are and many, more thousands of Australians are planning to do so. And I'm excited by that opportunity. Yes, we have challenges, of course. International energy prices continue to provide pressures. But we also have remarkable opportunities in our country, opportunities we intend to seize on behalf of the nation. Dan again?

JOURNALIST: Minister, what's your message to people that have read this report, have listened to the way that you've interpreted it and commenting on it, and are struggling to reconcile how that fits with the decision the government made in relation to the North West Shelf project?

CHRIS BOWEN: So, look, we've always been upfront with the Australian people that these are complicated and complex challenges. For example, it's easy to say, for example, no new gas, just as a slogan. That's not in touch with reality when you consider that we need gas to support renewables. Gas is a flexible energy source. A gas-fired power station can be turned on and off. It's zero emissions when it's turned off. That's the case in Australia and the case around the world. This government's seriousness on climate action cannot be underestimated. And that will be very clear- it's clear by action so far and it will be very clear with further announcements that are coming that we will be holding the course in what is a challenging environment. We'll be holding the course on climate action because it's in the best interest of our country and we'll be decarbonising our own economy and we'll be helping other economies decarbonise as well. No, you've had a go, Andrew.

JOURNALIST: Thanks, Minister. You said renewables are the cheapest form of energy. Do you share concerns of renewable energy investors about the government's proposed expansion of capital gains tax for foreign investors to include things like wind turbines, batteries, solar panels? They're saying this would deter investment in renewables and make it harder to reduce emissions.

CHRIS BOWEN: The renewable energy industry has also been very welcoming of our policies on the capacity investment scheme and others. The Treasury will continue to have ongoing consultations. We're going to wrap it up soon, but…

JOURNALIST: Minister, just to flip Dan's question around, how do you reconcile the fact that three of our four biggest exports, largely from Mr Wilson's state, are extractive resource industry? Gas, coal, iron ore. How do we reconcile the fact that our wealth comes from these polluting environments and yet we need to make this transition when the transition itself is going to be quite polluting because of the critical minerals that are needed and the massive amounts of coal and iron ore, for example, to build turbines?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, again, I choose to look at an optimistic frame-

JOURNALIST: I want you to look at it from the perspective of the question.

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I'm answering your question in a realistic and optimistic way, which is the way I think is the correct way, which is to say, yes, Australia is a traditional fossil fuel economy. Absolutely. And we are in the middle of a very significant transition. But we also face that challenge from a position of strength because we have the best renewable resources in the world. So countries around the world are facing the transition in their own ways. And many are trying to decarbonise and they need our help to do it. But it won't happen overnight. So they will continue to burn coal for some time to come and use gas for even longer. But they'll also be looking to Australia's renewable resources and to our progress. And I want Australia to be the indispensable nation when it comes to global decarbonisation. We have nine out of the ten minerals under our soil that's necessary for a battery. We have the best solar resources in the world and some of the best wind. So that gives us a remarkable opportunity for that transition, which you correctly point to. There's nothing incorrect in what you've just said. But also, from that position, we also tackle that challenge with a position of remarkable resources that not many countries in the world can call upon. Right at the back.

JOURNALIST: In the report, it makes it clear that it's hard to do broad sweeping statements for the whole country because we've got a lot of diverse ecosystems, even just north to south. Is this going to put more burden, perhaps, on local councils and states to take a lead on what they need for their communities?

CHRIS BOWEN: I wouldn't use the word burden, but I would say we're all in it together. We don't have all the resources at the Commonwealth level. We have many. We are arguably the key player, but we're not the only player. And states and territories and local governments say the same to me. States and territories and local governments say to me, we all have a role to play here, and they're right. But I'd tell you, it’s not just governments. I mean, this is a whole of community effort, a whole of society effort, a whole of industry effort. This is a very important national task at which the federal government will provide leadership and will provide guidelines and facilitation, but we actually will tackle this with all Australians and all levels of government. You've had several goes, Greg. Katina?

JOURNALIST: Mr Bowen, when you get to the end of this week and you've announced the climate target, will the environmental groups and those looking at the science say that you've done enough with that target to mitigate what this report [indistinct]?

CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I think I've said before that the target would be controversial by definition. There'll be plenty of Australians who say it's too low and plenty of Australians who say it's too high. It will be a target I'm very confident that we can look at with confidence that it can be achieved and with pride in its level of ambition. Okay, that's a wrap, guys. Thanks very much.